DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.18203/2394-6040.ijcmph20191844

Time series analysis of dengue cases reporting to a tertiary care hospital

Ravindra S. Kembhavi, Saurabha U. S.

Abstract


Background: Dengue fever is a major public health problem, the concern is high as the disease is closely related to climate change.

Methods: This was a retrospective study, conducted for 1 year in a tertiary care hospital in the city of Mumbai. Data of Dengue cases and climate for the city of Mumbai between 2011 and 2015 were obtained. Data was analysed using SPSS- time series analysis and forecasting model.

Results: 33% cases belonged to the 21-30 years, proportion of men affected were more than women. A seasonal distribution of cases was observed. A strong correlation was noted between the total number of cases reported and (a) mean monthly rainfall and (b) number of days of rainfall. ARIMA model was used for forecasting.

Conclusions: The trend analysis along with forecasting model helps in being prepared for the year ahead.

 


Keywords


Dengue, Time series, Forecast, Seasonal trend, Climate change

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