DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.18203/2394-6040.ijcmph20184807

Prediction of risk factors of periodontal disease by logistic regression: a study done in Karnataka, India

Shivalingappa Basavantappa Javali, Mohan Anantarao Sunkad, Appasaheb Saheb Wantamutte

Abstract


Background: The purpose of the study was to analyze the dependence of oral health diseases i.e. periodontal disease by Community Periodontal Index of Treatment Needs (CPITN) by considering the number of risk factors through the applications of logistic regression model.

Methods: This cross sectional study involves a systematic random sample of 600 permanent dentition aged between 18-40 years in Karnataka, India. The mean age was 34.26±7.28. The risk factors of periodontal disease were established by multiple logistic regression models using SPSS 21.0 statistical software.

Results: The factors like frequency of brushing, timings of cleaning teeth and type of toothpastes are significant persistent predictors of periodontal disease. The log likelihood value of full model is –1085.7876 and AIC is 1.2577 followed by reduced regression model are -1019.8106 and 1.1748 respectively for periodontal disease. The area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for the periodontal disease is 0.6128 (full model) and 0.5821 (reduced model).

Conclusions: The logistic regression model is useful in predicting risk factors like-frequency of brushing, timings of cleaning teeth and type of toothpastes for periodontal disease. The fitting performance of reduced logistic regression model is slightly a better fit as compared to full logistic regression model in identifying the these risk factors for both dichotomous periodontal disease.

 


Keywords


Akaike information criterion, Full model, Periodontal disease

Full Text:

PDF

References


LaMonte MJ, Genco RJ, Hovey KM, Wallace RB, Freudenheim JL, Michaud DS, et al. History of Periodontitis Diagnosis and Edentulism as Predictors of Cardiovascular Disease, Stroke, and Mortality in Postmenopausal Women. J Am Heart Assoc. 2017;6(4):e004518.

Zhang Q, Li Z, Wang C, Shen T, Yang Y, Chotivichien S, et al. Prevalence and predictors for periodontitis among adults in China, 2010. Glob Health Action. 2014;7:24503.

Hess RF, Gililland CS, Dembélé J. Prevalence and Predictors of Periodontal Disease among Pregnant Women in Mali, West Africa. Ann Med Health Sci Res. 2017;7:263-70.

Almerich-Silla J-M, Almiñana-Pastor PJ, Boronat-Catalá M, Bellot-Arcís C, Montiel JM. Socioeconomic factors and severity of periodontal disease in adults (35-44 years). Clin Exp Dent. 2017; 9(8):988–94.

Bokhari SA, Suhail AM, Malik AR, Imran MF. Periodontal disease status and associated risk factors in patients attending a Dental Teaching Hospital in Rawalpindi, Pakistan. J Indian Soc Periodontol 2015;19:678-82.

Najeeb S, Zafar MS, Khurshid Z, Zohaib S, Almas K. The Role of Nutrition in Periodontal Health. Nutrients. 2016;8(9):530.

Pandit PV, Javali SB. Multiple logistic regression model to predict risk factors of oral health diseases. Revista Română de Statistică. 2012;60(05):73-86.

AlJehani YA. Risk Factors of Periodontal Disease: Review of the Literature. Int J Dent. 2014;2014:182513.

Martinez-Herrera M, Silvestre-Rangil J, Silvestre F-J. Association between obesity and periodontal disease. A systematic review of epidemiological studies and controlled clinical trials. Med Oral Patol Oral Cir Bucal. 2017;22(6):708-15.

Thyvalikakath T, Song M, Schleyer T. Perceptions and attitudes toward performing risk assessment for periodontal disease: a focus group exploration. BMC Oral Health. 2018;18(1):90.

Stoykova M, Musurlieva N, Boyadzhiev D. Risk factors for development of chronic periodontitis in Bulgarian patients (pilot research). Biotechnol Biotechnol Equip. 2014;28(6):1150–4.

Pindborg JJ. Tobacco and gingivitis: statistical examination of the significance of tobacco in the development of ulcero membranous gingivitis and in the formation of calculus. J Dent Res. 1947;26:261-4.

Agresti A. Tutorial on modeling ordered categorical response data. Psychol Bull. 1989;105(2):290-301.

David WH, Stanley. Applied Logistic Regression, Second edition, A Wiley Inter science Publication, John Wiley and Sons, Inc. New York; 2000.

Metz CE. Basic principles of ROC analysis. Seminars in Nuclear Medicine. 1978;8:283-98.

Zweig MH, Campbell G. Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) plots, a fundamental evaluation tool in clinical medicine. Clinical Chemistry. 1993;39(4):561-77.

Grossi SG, Genco RJ, Machtei EE, Ho AW, Koch G, Dunford R, et al. Assessment of risk for periodontal disease. II. Risk indicators for alveolar bone loss. J Periodontol. 1995;66(1):23-9.

Herulf G. On the marginal alveolar ridge in adults. Sven Tandlak Tidsk. 1968;63:675-703.

Macgregor ID, Edgar WM, Greenwood AR. Effects of cigarette smoking on the rate of plaque formation. J Clin Periodontol. 1985;12(1):35-41.

Marshal-Day CD, Stephens RG, Quigley LF. Periodontal disease prevalence and incidence. J Periodontol. 1955;26:185-203.

Brunelle JA, Carlo JP, Brown LJ, Loe H. Oral Health of United States Adults. National findings. Bethesda MD. National Institute of Dental Research. NIH publication No. 87, 2868, 1987.

Nelder JA, Weldderburn RWM. Generalized linear models. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society A. local. 1972;135:370-84.

Grossi SG, Zambon JJ, Ho AW, Koch G, Dunford RG, Machtei EE, et al. Assessment of risk for periodontal disease-I, Risk indicators for attachment loss. J Periodontol. 1994;65(3):260-7.

Grossi SG, Genco RJ, Machtei EE, Ho AW, Koch G, Dunford R, et al. Assessment of risk for periodontal disease. II. Risk indicators for alveolar bone loss. J Periodontol. 1995;66:23-9.

Griner PF, Mayewski RJ, Mushlin AI, Greenland P.. Selection and interpretation of diagnostic tests and procedures. Ann Internal Med. 1981;94;557-92.

Abdellatif HM, Burt BA. An epidemiological investigation into the relative importance of age and oral hygiene status as determinants of periodontitis. J Dent Res. 1987;66;13-8.

Agresti A. Tutorial on modeling ordered categorical response data. Psychological Bulletin, 1989;105:290-301.

Ainamo J, Barmes D, Beagrie G, Cutress T, Martin J, Sardo-Infirri J. Development of the World Health Organization (WHO) community periodontal index of treatment needs (CPITN). Int Dent J. 1982;32(3);281-91.

Bergstrom J, Floderus-Myred B. Co-twin control study of the relationship between smoking and some periodontal disease factors. Community Dent. Oral Epidemiol. 1983;11:113-6.

Bergstrom J. Oral hygiene compliance and gingivitis expression in cigarette smokers. Scand J Dent Res. 1990;98:497-503.

Bergstrom J. Short term investigation on the influence of cigarette smoking upon plaque accumulation. Scand J Dent Res. 1981;89:235-8.

Cox DR, Snell EJ. Analysis of Binary Data. Second Edition. London: Chapman and Hall; 1970.

David WH, Stanley L. Applied Logistic Regression, Second edition, A Wiley Inter science Publication. New York: John Wiley and Sons Inc.; 2015.

Eija KK, Leena R. Relationship of oral hygiene and sugar consumption to risk of caries in children. Community Dent Oral Epidemiol. 1982;10:224-33.

Ramfjord SP, Emslie RD, Greene JC, Held AJ, Waerhaug J. Epidemiological studies of periodontal disease. Am J Public Health. 1968;28:1713-22.

Rao CR. Linear Statistical Inference and its application. Second edition. New York: Wiley Inc; 2001.

Russell AL. Geographical Distribution and Epidemiology of Periodontal Disease. Geneva. World Health Organization, (WHO/DH/33/34).

Schei O, Waerhaug J, Lovdal A, Arno A. Alveolar bone loss as related to oral hygiene and age. J Periodontol. 1959;30:7-16.

Sheiham A. Periodontal disease and oral cleanliness in tobacco smokers. J Periodontol. 1971;42:259-63.

Solomon HA. Cigarette smoking and periodontal disease. J Am Dent Assoc. 1968;77:1081-4.

U. S. Public Health Service. National center for Health Statistics. Basic data on Dental examination findings of persons 1-75 years, United States 1971-1974. DHEW publication No. (PHS) 79-1662, Series 11. No. 214. Washington DC. Government printing office, 1974.